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Prediction for CME (2014-10-29T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-10-29T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/7079/-1
CME Note: source is probably a filament eruption seen on disk in SDO starting ~09:00, in the south, long filament in E-W direction.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-11-02T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Model Inputs:
2014-10-29T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-40.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=490.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2014-10-29T23:58Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2014-11-02T06:00Z (confidence level +- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141029_235800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141029_235800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif 

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/7081/1

Lead Time: 76.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-10-30T01:59Z

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